A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
