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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.