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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.