Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.